As of this writing, the crypto market is trying to recover. But it’s still too early to say if the meltdown of this asset class, which Mark Cuban has described as the “great unwind,” is over just yet. That’s discouraging for those looking to profit from established names like Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) and Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD). It’s especially bad news for those rolling the dice with more speculative altcoins like BitTorrent (CCC:BTT-USD).
It may not have hit Dogecoin (CCC:DOGE-USD) levels of success. But, surging in tandem with other “altcoins,” BitTorrent went up about forty-fold between January and April. Those who chased it near its highs are sitting on massive losses right now. Since climbing to prices above 1 cent, BTT-USD has since cratered to around .4 cents. That’s about a 60% decline from its highs.
So, what lies ahead for BitTorrent, an offshoot of the controversial file sharing service of the same name? Another fall back to fractions of a penny, which it traded for as recently as January, isn’t set in stone.
Yet with retail speculators running scared and possible crypto price declines ahead, it doesn’t look like BitTorrent will bounce back anytime soon. With this in mind, it may be best to hold off dabbling in the altcoin until the market stabilizes.
BitTorrent Never Quite Made it to Prime Time
When I last wrote about BitTorrent, I discussed its potential to meme its way to higher prices. Like DOGE, if it caught on among speculators active online or gained social proof like a celebrity endorsement, the altcoin could have seen another turbocharged rally on top of its parabolic surge.
Add in the familiarity of its name, and BitTorrent seemed to have the ingredients for a profitable trade — even for those a little late to the party. Unfortunately, this failed to pan out.
BitTorrent never quite made it to prime time. In a crowded field of altcoins, which includes scores of dog-themed cryptos inspired by Dogecoin, it failed to catch on as a speculative vehicle. And at the end of the day, that’s mainly what BitTorrent had going for it.
Ethereum, Cardano (CCC:ADA-USD) and Polygon (CCC:MATIC-USD), were positioned to soar due to their high utility and widespread use in blockchain or decentralized finance (DeFi) transactions. BitTorrent never had those advantages. It was either going to explode with the meme coin phenomenon, or it wasn’t. Turns out the latter happened. And, as the recent crypto meltdown scares off more fickle speculators, its odds of making a comeback appear slim.
Even if Crypto Recovers, It’s Unclear If BitTorrent Will, Too
In general, it’s tough to time a market bottom in investing. When it comes to cryptocurrency, it’s a near-impossibility. With 24/7 trading and heavy volatility, things in the crypto sphere can turn on a dime. Even so, some altcoin investors are confident that the recent correction is almost over and another round of price expansion is just over the horizon.
Yet while this more bullish thesis may prevail, it doesn’t bode well for a BitTorrent recovery. There’s little to convince investors to bid it up once again.
Unlike Bitcoin, BitTorrent lacks support from institutional investors. The so-called “smart money” isn’t going to buy this anytime soon. Additionally, its opaque nature will likely prevent it from becoming a major medium of exchange. Put it all together, and at best BitTorrent will hold steady if cryptos stage a general recovery. At worst, it will pull back as both newbies and aficionados hone in on a smaller pool of “winners” instead of blindly buying on “greater fool theory” alone.
A BTT Comeback May Be Possible, But it’s Not Probable
Admittedly, I wouldn’t count out BTT-USD staging some sort of rebound. Buying now, as it trades for less than half of a penny, you could see tremendous profits — even if it fails to bounce back to its high water mark.
That being said, while a comeback may not be impossible, it’s not looking probable. As its utility pales in comparison to Ethereum and Cardano and the meme coin trend fizzles out, there’s not much reason to dive into BitTorrent right now.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel held long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.